Complacency not an option: Five things to watch as the USWNT continues pursuit of gold against Germany in the Olympic semifinals

The U.S. should be the favorites against Germany in Olympic semifinals, but don’t expect a repeat of 4-1 group stage win

It has been just nine days since the U.S. Women’s national team rolled to a 4-1 victory over Germany in the group stage of the 2024 Olympics. And while the opponent might be familiar, both sides enter Tuesday’s semifinal in Lyon with strong momentum.

Considering the previous result in the group stage, conventional wisdom would suggest the USWNT are the favorites to win this semifinal and go directly on to the Gold Medal game. Yet, Germany has improved since the last encounter between the two sides, and could prove to be a more challenging prospect for Emma Hayes’ team. Complacency is not an option for the U.S., despite four straight wins at these Games.

More important, the U.S. have much to learn from their knockout round opener against Japan. In that match, the U.S. wasn’t allowed to play beautiful soccer. Instead, they were forced to endure, which they ultimately did after 120 grueling minutes, hanging on for a 1-0 victory.

What will these 90 minutes against the Germans look like, or will it be another 120? GOAL offers five things to watch in the USWNT’s rematch against Germany.

The USWNT got their first statement victory of the Olympics when they faced Germany in the group stage. It was an emphatic result, one that showcased Hayes’ impact on the team. Sophia Smith had a brace and one could make a case the win over Germany remains the team’s most impressive outing.

Germany bounced back, though. They blasted Zambia 4-1, to book their spot in the knockout round. They then outlasted Canada in penalties in the quarterfinals to advance. This German team is no pushover. It may not be a vintage Germany, but there are still numerous threats on this squad.

The key to this matchup? Coaching. What type of adjustments will Germany head coach Horst Hrubesch make? How will Hayes counter? And will there be any psychological impact from the previous encounter? Overconfidence on the part of the U.S.? Intimidation on the part of Germany?

The mental game will be just as interesting as the physical one in what could be a closer affair.

Keeping an Olympic roster fit is challenging enough, given the reduced squad size. Doing so while not making subs? Good luck, Hayes.

The former Chelsea boss didn’t make a substitution through 90 minutes of the quarterfinal against Japan. By the end of it all, which included extra time, she’d made just three. With less than a three-day turnaround, the USWNT will be asking a lot from its starting players in a short span.

Injuries have played their part. Tierna Davidson’s absence has left Hayes with a problem at center-back. Sam Coffey’s suspension left the midfield shorthanded against Japan. Aside from Lynn Williams, there haven’t been healthy subs to really make in the attack – for example, Jaedyn Shaw, who has not played in these Games, was listed as a sub against Japan but never featured. That’s part of this tournament.

Can they survive? Will this team be fit and ready for another grueling knockout game and then, win or lose, one more after that? Fitness is significant concern, but at the semifinal stage, it it too late to manage?Given the fitness issues, it would be a tremendous benefit for the U.S. to bring a teenage superstar off the bench. Shaw has yet to play due to a leg injury, robbing the USWNT of a key contributor. Despite being 19, the teenager has proven herself as one of this team’s most dangerous creators. She’s been a big miss, but there’s reason to believe that she may still have a part to play.

The fact that Hayes didn’t turn to her against Japan indicated that she wasn’t quite ready, even though it was a game calling out for a player with Shaw’s abilities. There hasn’t been much time since but every day counts when nursing an injury. Could this be the game where she makes her Olympic debut?

This will be a pressure-filled situation, but she has handled those before. Could Shaw still can make her mark this summer?

Coffey’s yellow card was one of the few negatives of the group stage. Her caution against Australia saw her earn a needless suspension for the quarterfinals. The U.S. survived without her, but she’s back.

Korbin Albert stepped in and did fine, but these two are very different players. Coffey brings more defensive steel to the equation and as games get tighter, that ability only becomes more important.

Coffey’s return gives Hayes a much-needed skillset, but it also lets her use Albert as a super-sub. That’s the domino effect of a starter returning, and that’s all good news for the U.S.

The USWNT cruised through the group stage by playing high-flying soccer. The attack dazzled, scoring nine goals in the group stage to put teams away as quickly as possible. It was the ideal start for a team that needed that confidence.

But the Japan win reminded the world of one thing: knockout stages aren’t easy. Games get just a bit uglier and a bit harder. Does this U.S. team have the grit to endure?

We know that it has the talent. This team is humming and full of players who have reason to believe in themselves. Japan showed this team is open to frustration, though. They sat back in a low block, preventing the USWNT’s stars from playing their game. It wasn’t pretty, but effective. If not for Trinity Rodman’s fantastic breakthrough goal in extra time, who knows what could have happened in penalties? Japan was willing to find out, and the U.S. will be thankful they didn’t.

Germany, on the other hand, will have new belief after beating France and a mapping out a blueprint for success. Sit back, be compact and attempt to strike at a moment of weakness. There won’t be many of those moments with this U.S. team, but Germany will know them when they come.

We’ll have to see if the U.S. has the mentality to ride out the frustrating times. The group was about beauty and the knockouts will be about heart. If the U.S. can prove they have both, they might just be wearing gold medals around their necks in the coming days.